- Moody’s Ratings has now given our traditional K-12 public schools “a negative outlook.” The top reason: slowing revenue. The $121.9 billion from the Elementary and Secondary Emergency Relief III had to be spent by January 28, 2025, now extended to March 2026–but on a case-by-case basis. Also problematic: rising staffing costs and declining student enrollment.
- The National Center for Education Statistics reports that traditional K-12 public school enrollment dropped 0.2% between the fall of 2023 and fall of 2022 and 2.5% from pre-pandemic 2019. The greatest decline was seen at the pre-K-to-8-grade levels, dropping 4.5% between 2019 and 2023.
- About students’ unfinished learning, the EdWeek Research Center finds that:
- 40% of surveyed elementary school teachers said their students were still behind at “moderate” levels in both math and English/language arts.
- 35% said those levels were at the “severe” or “very severe” levels in math.
- 31% said those levels were also at the “severe” or “very severe” levels in English/language arts.
- 46% of survey secondary school teachers said their students were still behind at “moderate” levels in English/language arts.
- 26% said their students were behind at “severe” or “very severe” levels in English/language arts.
- 40% said their students were behind at “moderate” levels in math.
- 37% said their students were behind at “severe” or “very severe” levels in math.
- According to data from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s latest “Knocking on the College Door”:
- Between 3.8 and 3.9 million high school seniors will graduate this school year, but that number is expected to fall below 3.4 million in 2041.
- Only 12 states and DC will see an increase by 2041.
- 7 states will see a decline of more than 20% by 2041.
- These 5 states, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania, will likely be responsible for 75% of the total 2023-2041 decline.
- More than 50% of states have at least one private school choice program, according to Education Week. Plus:
- 12 states already or will soon provide private school choice programs that will accept applications from all of their students.
- This 2024-25 school year, more than one million of our 500 million K-12 students took advantage of these programs, says EdChoice.
- Reportedly, 50% of all National School Lunch Program schools now provide free meals to all of their students. That translates to 47,766 schools in 7,717 districts providing 23 million breakfasts and lunches at no cost.
- Based on the results of the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), the literacy skills of our 16-to-65-year-olds dropped by 12 points between 2017 and 2023. Not only does the U.S. stand in the middle of other countries literacy-wise, we fell below the international average in math.
Worrisome at every age…
With thanks and Ground Hog Day wishes, Carol
