Amy Rock, Campus Safety’s Executive Editor, and Education Week‘s Mark Lieberman report that, between 2013 and 2019, public school enrollment rose right there along with the rest of the U.S. population—until the pandemic took a sledgehammer to the numbers. In the 2019-20 school year, K-12 enrollment dropped by a whopping 50 million kids, according to the Center for Education Statistics (NCES).
By 2023, that number stood at 49.7 million, 2.09% below pre-pandemic levels and no laughing matter because …
- The Wall Street Journal found that, between 2018 and 2022, 85%, enrollment dropped in 85% of our 100 largest districts–and a problem since public school funding is allocated to districts on a per pupil basis. In other words, fewer kids = fewer dollars.
- Less funding translates to less money for new teacher hires and those already on the job. Plus, as of September 30, the $190 billion when COVID dollars disappeared, as enrollment continues to drop. The upshot? Says the superintendent of the Los Angeles United School District Alberto Carvalho, “Armageddon! It’s going to be a hurricane of massive proportions.”
So what’s behind the declining numbers? Let me count the ways:
- Stanford University researchers tell us that 14% of students have left for private schools, while another 26% are now homeschooled. (In the 2020-21 school year, 35% of private schools saw an uptick in enrollment, with 50% receiving more applications than they could handle.)
- Charter schools enjoyed an enrollment jump, too, increasing to 7.5% of public schoolers in the 2020-21 school year, up from 6.8% in 2019-20.
- About homeschooling: As reported by Bellweather Education Partners, since the start of the pandemic, nearly 2.6 million kids are now taught at home, with the total standing at about 5 million, equal to about 11% of all households.
Then there are the parent dissatisfaction factors, such as those reflected in a recent Quinn survey where…
- 17% were troubled by the academic curriculum/instruction.
- 11% wanted more personalized instruction.
- 12% wanted religious or moral instruction that matched their beliefs.
Other issues include the fact that…
- Charters and private schools not bound by the same rules imposed on public schools, they get to make their own.
- During the 2020-21 school year, while just 5% of private schools stuck with remote instruction, 62% of public schools did, according to Burbio.
- The public school mask mandate stayed in place for a long time.
- School violence and other school safety issues between students and against staff keeps increasing. In fact, in a recent Quinn survey, 34% of parents said they opted to homeschool due to concerns about school shootings, drugs, and negative peer pressure.
- Teacher shortages abound, with kids paying the price and falling behind. Reading and math schools have nosedived, and federal dollars have failed to stem the tide.
- Mounting absenteeism is another factor, plus no one seems to know the actual dropout rate.
Also working against our public schools is America’s low birthrate, and that has not been set off by new immigrants. In 1970, the “crude birthrate” stood at 23.7—the number of live births per 1,000 people. That indicator slipped to 16.7 in 1990, and then just 11 in 2020-21.
As Stanford economics and education professor Thomas Dee puts it: “School districts need to realize that it looks like the students they lost are not coming back any time soon.”
In fact, a July Learning Counsel study warns that, by 2030, public schools will have lost another 16 million students–and that should worry all of us…
~ With thanks and good Thanksgiving wishes, Carol
